Updated: Jun 17
In this post I'm going to share my outlook on stocks and and the economy. None of this should be taken as financial advice and encourage everyone to substantial research before making financial decisions.
Today was a historic day for the Federal Reserve, as they coming out earlier today (6/15/2022) and raised interest rates by .75% for the first time since 1994. While there is a lot to take away from this meeting and the reaction so far, one thing is certain.
Volatility is here to stay.
At least for a while....
With everything considered, my investing strategy hasn't changed much. I am still leaning bearish in the medium term and mentioned before there are 2 main things I am carefully looking at:
Unemployment and Oil Prices
While there are definitely other factors to consider, these are my 2 big signals which are simple enough for anyone to understand. Luckily, unemployment hasn't had much, if any negative data in recent months/weeks but once/if negative data starts to come and unemployment raises... that's when I expect it to have a domino effect and very likely for sh*t to hit the fan.
Inflation has been having a negative effect on everyone for some time now. I do believe if it wasn't for high oil prices inflation outlook would be much different, but I am not quite certain for better or for worse. Regardless, the price of oil, primarily diesel and gasoline, has been my main inflation gage.
If I could recommend anything to take away from this post it would be to watch oil prices and watch the unemployment rate/job data.
What/When I am Buying: My Strategy
So a brief summary about my portfolio, I sold all of my stocks in April to raise capital for a house flip. Unfortunately/fortunately the deal didn't work out and I haven't owed stocks since then besides some short term trades here and there.
As I mentioned before I am fairly bearish in the short to mid-term. My strategy has changed from just long term investing to getting more risky with some options and short term trades. I don't think it would be beneficial for me to talk about these trades but what I do want to mention is that I am not sure how close we are for me to feel confident about averaging back in.
I will say that the first company I'll be buying for the long-term is Microsoft but will likely hold off on most other tech companies until things are a bit more clear. Good luck with your investing, be safe, do research and don't be afraid to take it slow!